Mr Trump now trails Ms Harris by just 2 points among Latino men, while his advantage among white voters has been erased by Ms Harris’s support among white women.

Doan Hung

10/27/2024 07:42

Analysis of the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls shows that Republican former US President Donald Trump has all but erased the Democrats’ long-held advantage among Latino male voters ahead of the November 5 presidential election when he faces Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

A VNA correspondent in the US cited the results of an analysis of more than 15,000 responses in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in October (as of October 21) showing that Mr. Trump is now only 2 points behind Vice President Harris among Latino male voters at 44%-46%, thereby significantly narrowing the gap compared to his 19-point loss to Democratic candidate Joe Biden at the same point in the 2020 election.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s advantage among white voters has been erased by Ms Harris’s growing support among white women.

This segment of voters supported Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden by 12 points at the end of 2020, but now they support the Republican candidate by only 3 points (46%-43%).

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from October 16-21, both candidates are in a very tight race, in which Ms. Harris is only 3 points ahead of Mr. Trump, with a rate of 46% compared to 43%.

The changes are just part of larger shifts in the groups of voters each candidate is counting on to win, with Mr. Trump increasing his advantage among Latino and black voters, mostly men, while Ms. Harris has cut into Republicans’ long-standing advantage among white voters by winning over women.

Robert Alomia, a Latino voter in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who works for a security company, said he respects Mr. Trump’s career as a businessman and plans to vote for the 45th White House chief this year after staying out of the 2020 election.

Davison, a Republican strategist, said many women have turned to Harris in part because Democrats have effectively focused their attacks on abortion following the 2022 Supreme Court ruling that ended abortion rights nationwide./.US Election 2024: Mr. Trump is Erasing the Democratic Party’s Advantage

As the United States prepares for the 2024 presidential election, a shift in voter sentiment is altering the dynamics that once seemed to favor the Democratic Party. Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is gradually closing the gap that the Democrats have traditionally relied on. This development is shaking up expectations, energizing his base, and worrying Democratic strategists who previously felt assured of a win in battleground states.

The Decline of the Democratic Advantage

Over the last decade, the Democratic Party has typically held a lead in urban areas, among younger voters, and across certain demographic groups, including African American and Hispanic communities. However, recent polls and emerging data suggest that this advantage is dwindling. Trump has made significant inroads with voters who previously leaned Democratic, and his campaign is targeting key issues that resonate deeply with various voter segments, including the economy, immigration, and national security.

Trump’s ability to appeal to working-class Americans is one of the main factors erasing the Democratic lead. The former president’s message of “America First” and focus on jobs, coupled with criticisms of Democratic economic policies, have struck a chord with voters feeling left behind. Rising inflation and concerns about employment are giving Trump’s campaign ample ground to attract these disillusioned voters who are skeptical of the current administration’s economic strategy.

The Power of Messaging

The Trump campaign’s messaging strategy is laser-focused on amplifying the frustrations of the average American. By continuously hammering on issues like inflation, perceived government overreach, and a perceived lack of control at the border, Trump has reignited the “silent majority” — a term he often uses to refer to the Americans he believes are neglected by the political elite. His use of social media and rallies effectively keeps these issues front and center, positioning him as the candidate who will bring change.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are facing challenges in countering these narratives. With the current administration struggling to control inflation and manage crises like the surge in illegal immigration, they have found it challenging to keep their traditional base united. Concerns over crime rates and education policy have also alienated some moderate voters who previously aligned with the Democratic Party but are now reconsidering their options.

A Shifting Demographic Landscape

Trump’s gains in certain demographic groups represent another factor in the erosion of the Democratic advantage. While the Democrats have long counted on the Hispanic vote, Trump has notably increased his support among Hispanic Americans, especially in states like Florida and Texas. The shift reflects a growing trend within this demographic toward conservative values on issues such as religion, family, and small business support — areas where many Hispanic voters feel the Republican Party better represents their views.

Furthermore, younger voters, traditionally a stronghold for Democrats, are showing signs of division. Economic challenges, coupled with a rising skepticism toward traditional party politics, are leading some young voters to question their allegiance. Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric is resonating with this group, offering an alternative that aligns with their desire for substantial change rather than incremental reform.

Looking Ahead

With less than a year until Election Day, the Democratic Party faces a formidable challenge. The loss of its historical advantages in critical areas could mean a tight race with potential surprises in traditionally blue states. As Trump’s influence grows, his support base becomes more energized, narrowing the Democratic edge in battleground regions.

In response, Democrats are ramping up their efforts to re-engage with their core constituencies and mitigate these shifts. This involves targeted outreach and policy adjustments aimed at addressing the concerns of working-class Americans and younger voters. However, they are racing against time, as Trump’s campaign continues to leverage every issue to widen his appeal and reduce the Democratic Party’s hold on key demographics.

The 2024 election is poised to be one of the most closely contested in recent history. As Trump erases the Democratic Party’s advantage, both parties are adjusting their strategies, aware that the outcome could fundamentally reshape the nation’s political landscape. Whether the Democrats can reclaim their edge or if Trump will succeed in his quest to return to the White House remains to be seen.